Hey Trader,
A Timeless Reminder for Traders
I hope this message finds you well. I wanted to share a verse that offers powerful inspiration, especially for us in the trading world:
"Every good and perfect gift is from above, coming down from the Father of the heavenly lights, who does not change like shifting shadows." - James 1:17
In the ever-changing landscape of the markets, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed by volatility and uncertainty. This verse reminds us that amidst all the fluctuations, there is a constant and unchanging source of goodness and stability.
Just as we navigate the highs and lows of trading, let’s remember that true value and perfect gifts come from above, providing us with the strength and clarity we need.
Keep this in mind as you continue your trading journey, and may it inspire you to seek consistency and integrity in all your endeavors.
Be Relentless In Pursuit Of The Will
Which God Has Set Upon Your Heart,
Anthony Speciale
Live Trading: Never Discount "Looking Left"
Hello, traders! Anthony Speciale here with Special Analysis, and today, I’m excited to break down a trade I executed this morning on crude oil.
Understanding these setups can significantly enhance your trading strategy, particularly if you are a retail trader seeking to refine your approach.
The 4:45 AM Candle: Key Insights
Our analysis starts with the 4:45 AM candle, which showcased a large wick and high buying volume.
Recognizing this buying volume, yet seeing no follow-through and a subsequent aggressive selloff back to prior lows, suggested that a retest of this area might establish supply or a potential reversal point.
This set the stage for anticipating a further push to the downside.
High Buying Volume and Trapped Traders
Fast forward to the 7:20 AM and 7:25 AM candles, both of which exhibited strong buying volumes but lacked follow-through.
This scenario indicated trapped buyers at the top of the candle.
My analysis inferred that if the candle held, a selloff would likely ensue, pushing the price downward.
And that’s precisely what happened.
Trade Execution and Risk Management
Let’s zoom in on the trade execution and risk management:
Entry: I got short at 79.31, placing my stop above the high of the prior wick, risking six ticks.
Profit Targets:
First target: 79.17, securing 14 ticks.
Second target: 79.10, securing 21 ticks.
Third target: 78.90, securing 41 ticks.
Final target: Prior low area, securing 52 ticks.
I scaled out of the position as the price moved towards prior lows to manage risk and lock in profits. This approach is crucial when trading against potential market reversals.
Trading successfully requires a deep understanding of market dynamics.
Analyzing the Pullback
During our live session at 8:35 AM, the price pulled back into the rolling VWAP and session VWAP.
The market needed to test and break 78.80 (prior lows) and potentially move towards 78.60 - 78.50, providing significant liquidity.
Indeed, the market fell just short of 78.20 by just 1 tick before starting to reverse.
Spotting Resistance and Opportunities
An important observation was made on a specific candle showing strong selling volume but no follow-through.
My analysis noted that if the price failed to close above prior lows, it could indicate resistance and a subsequent push lower.
The market did test the rolling VWAP but fell short, indicating the presence of sellers and affirming our analysis.
Providing Analysis, Interpretation, and Expectations
My primary role is to provide you with a detailed analysis, interpretation, and expectations based on market evidence. Here’s a recap of my thought process:
Analysis: We’re in a downtrend.
Interpretation: The current price action may represent a lower high.
Expectation: Targets were set at 78.80, 78.60, 78.50, and ultimately 78.20.
I’m here to guide you through the intricacies of market movements, helping you develop a robust trading plan.
Accepting Market Realities
It's crucial to understand that trading involves risks and losses.
If you are searching for a 100% win rate, this industry might not be for you.
Success in trading comes from learning to manage losses and developing strategies that work consistently over time.
I hope this breakdown provides valuable insights into how to approach crude oil trading with a disciplined and analytical mindset.
Remember, these videos are for informational and educational purposes, designed to help you see the market from a seasoned trader’s perspective.
Thank you for watching and reading.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to leave them below. Be sure to check out the links for more resources and join our live sessions for real-time analysis.
Stay informed, trade smart, and God bless.
Happy Trading,
Speciale Analysis
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