Playing Crude Oil LONG and SHORT Before Inventory Report Release
- Anthony Speciale
- Aug 14, 2024
- 5 min read
Updated: Aug 14, 2024
Hey Trader,
Finding Strength in God's Love and Forgiveness
I hope this email finds you well. As we navigate the ups and downs of the trading world, I wanted to share a verse that offers comfort and reassurance:
"You, Lord, are forgiving and good, abounding in love to all who call to you."
Psalm 86:5
In the fast-paced environment of trading, it's easy to get caught up in the stress and pressure of the moment.
But this verse reminds us that no matter the challenges we face, we can always turn to God for forgiveness, goodness, and love.
His love is abundant, and He is always ready to extend grace to those who seek Him.
Let this verse inspire you to trade with a heart full of peace and confidence, knowing that you are supported by a love that never fails.
Wishing you continued success and serenity in your trading journey!
Be Relentless In Pursuit Of The Will
Which God Has Set Upon Your Heart,
Anthony Speciale
Playing Crude Oil LONG and SHORT Before Inventory Report Release
As traders, we know that each day in the market presents unique opportunities and challenges.
Today was no different. In this blog post, I want to walk you through my trades this morning, the rationale behind them, and the key takeaways that can benefit any retail trader looking to refine their approach.
The Trading Landscape
Today was an inventory report day, a significant event that can dramatically impact market behavior, particularly in the commodities sector.
Knowing this, I approached the morning with a clear strategy: I aimed to complete my trades before the 10:30 AM Eastern Standard Time report release to avoid the inevitable volatility.
The plan was simple—be aggressive with profits, protect capital, and avoid unnecessary risk.
I’ll break down my trades in detail, explaining the thought process behind each move, so you can learn from both the successes and the challenges I encountered.
Trade 1: The Morning Long Position
The first trade opportunity presented itself at 7:35 AM. We observed a strong bottom forming, followed by a push to the upside, which indicated a potential entry point.
Entry: I went long at $78.24.
Partial Profits: As the market began to move in my favor, I sold 10 out of my 30 contracts at $78.45 +$2,100 and another 10 at $78.65 +$4,100.
Exit: The final 10 contracts were stopped out at $78.30 +$600 as the market retraced slightly.
GAIN: $6,800 - Fees
Outcome: This trade was a solid start to the morning, even though we didn’t hit the highs I was aiming for. As the market approached the VWAP, it struggled to push higher, which led to the eventual stop-out of my remaining position.
Lesson: It's crucial to recognize when the market is struggling to reach a particular level. Being too aggressive with profit-taking can sometimes result in leaving money on the table, but it also ensures that you protect your gains, especially in a volatile environment.
Trade 2: The Short Reversal
As the market began to reverse, another opportunity arose at 9:40 AM. The price action indicated a potential continuation to the downside, which prompted me to take a short.
Entry: Short at $78.50.
Partial Profits: I covered 10 contracts at $78.30 +$2,000 and another 10 at $78.10 +$4,000.
Exit: The final 10 contracts were stopped out at $78.20 +$3000.
GAIN $9,000 - Fees
Outcome: While I missed out on a larger move that occurred later in the morning, I successfully avoided the risk associated with the impending inventory report. This was a deliberate decision, as I had no way of predicting the report’s outcome.
Lesson: Sometimes, it’s better to exit a position early, especially when a high-impact news event is on the horizon. Even though the report turned out bearish, which would have been favorable for my position, the decision to exit was based on risk management principles rather than market predictions.
The Importance of Resilience and Emotional Control
Trading is a game of resilience. It’s essential to maintain emotional control, particularly after a losing trade.
Yesterday, for example, I started my day with a $3,300 loss, only to bounce back later with a $7,500 win.
This kind of volatility is part and parcel of trading, and it’s crucial to stick to your trade plan and maintain discipline.
Key Takeaways:
Stick to Your Plan: Trading success comes from consistency. Whether it’s sticking to your stop-loss levels, taking profits when you can, or avoiding high-risk periods, having a solid plan is your best defense against market uncertainty.
Manage Risk Aggressively: In volatile conditions, being aggressive with stop-loss adjustments and profit-taking can protect your capital and ensure that you stay in the game long-term.
Understand Market Cycles: Markets go through phases, and not every day will be a winning day. Recognize that some days, weeks, or even months may be challenging, but this is part of the trader’s journey.
Don’t Chase Tops or Bottoms: Trying to time the market’s exact high or low can be tempting, but it’s often better to wait for a confirmed move before entering a trade. This approach reduces the likelihood of getting caught in a false breakout or breakdown.
Learn from Each Trade: Every trade, whether it’s a win or a loss, is an opportunity to learn. Analyze what went right, what went wrong, and how you can apply these lessons in future trades.
Trading is not a sprint; it’s a marathon. Success comes from a combination of strategy, discipline, and the ability to learn and adapt.
By focusing on risk management and maintaining a level-headed approach, you can navigate the ups and downs of the market with confidence.
Remember: resilience is key. Each trade is a step on your journey to becoming a better trader.
Stay informed, stay focused and stay disciplined ! ! !
Thank you for reading, and I look forward to seeing you in our next session . . .
God bless, and have a wonderful day!
If you have any questions or need further guidance, please don't hesitate . . . info@specialeanalysis.com May the markets be ever in your favor!
Happy Trading,
Speciale Analysis
About the Author:
Anthony Speciale is a seasoned market analyst with over 13 years of experience trading. Through his platform, Speciale Analysis, he offers in-depth market analysis, interpretation, and expectations designed to help all types of traders, at every skill levels reach their full potential.
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NOTE: Trading involves significant risk, and it's essential to approach it with a well-defined strategy and a disciplined mindset. This blog post is intended for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making an financial decisions. For further risk related information, please refer to: www.specialeanalysis.com/disclaimer
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