Hey Trader,
Using Volume To Identify BOTH A Failed Breakout And A Successful Breakout
Welcome to the video, everyone! Anthony Speciale here with Hawkeye Traders. I hope you're having a fantastic day.
Today, I want to delve into a couple of crucial strategies for retail traders: breaking out of trend lines or channel structures and employing volume to your advantage.
These techniques can be incredibly beneficial when applied correctly, regardless of the market or timeframe you are trading.
Real-Time Analysis: The Key to Credibility
When you can identify what's happening in the market as it unfolds, it adds a layer of trust and reliability to your trading strategy.
Hindsight trading, where you look back and say you would have done something differently, lacks this immediacy and practical relevance.
Scenario 1: The Failed Breakout
Let's start with the first scenario. At 9:00 AM Eastern Standard Time, we observed a breakout from a channel structure.
This breakout occurred on a wide bar with ultra-high buying volume, the highest volume traded up to that point in the session.
Despite the initial push, the price did not close in the top 10% of the bar, leading to an immediate failure.
When trading breakouts with ultra-high volume, be cautious if there is no immediate follow-through. More often than not, this leads to a failed breakout.
In this case, the price fell back below the channel structure, turning what was once support into resistance.
This shift provided a beautiful shorting opportunity across the channel structure, yielding over 50 ticks.
Scenario 2: The Successful Breakout
Later in the morning, at 11:21 AM, we saw another breakout from the same channel structure.
This time, the breakout occurred on a reasonable uptick in volume—nothing extreme, but enough to be significant.
Here’s the critical part: after breaking out, the price retested the previous resistance, now turned support.
By 11:30 AM, the price exploded higher on a wide bar that closed at its peak, moving another 50 plus ticks.
The Importance of Context
The success of these strategies hinges on understanding market context. Randomly picking volume and price action without context won’t yield good results.
Identifying meaningful areas, like trend lines and channel structures, allows you to interpret volume and price action around those areas effectively.
In the first scenario, the ultra-high volume and subsequent failure highlighted a perfect shorting opportunity. In the second scenario, the reasonable volume increase and successful retest confirmed a strong buying opportunity.
Both scenarios provided 100 plus tick moves in opposite directions, demonstrating the power of this approach.
To master these techniques, you need to integrate volume and price action into your trading foundation.
Relying solely on magical indicators won’t get you far. Instead, you must become the indicator by interpreting volume and price action in real time.
This method significantly improved my trading consistency and discipline, and it can do the same for you.
At Hawkeye Traders, we provide the tools and training to help you achieve this.
Understanding and applying these tools will allow you to identify and act on market opportunities effectively.
Mastering market breakouts through volume and price action is a game-changer.
By focusing on these techniques and incorporating them into your trading plan, you can significantly improve your trading outcomes.
Thank you for joining me today. If you have any questions or need further assistance, feel free to reach out. And have a wonderful day!
Happy Trading,
Anthony Speciale
Speciale Analysis
About the Author:
Anthony Speciale is a seasoned market analyst with over 13 years of experience trading. Through his platform, Speciale Analysis, he offers in-depth market analysis, interpretation, and expectations designed to help all types of traders, at every skill levels reach their full potential.
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NOTE: Trading involves significant risk, and it's essential to approach it with a well-defined strategy and a disciplined mindset. This blog post is intended for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making an financial decisions. For further risk related information, please refer to: www.specialeanalysis.com/disclaimer
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